Birth rates have declined by 20% in the past decade.

New statistics have revealed that Ireland could be just a single generation away from a population crisis. Data from the Central Statistics Office has shown that there has been a 20% decline in registered births over the past 10 years falling from 68,930 in 2013 to 54,678 in 2023, and a 5% decline between 2022 and 2023 alone.

For decades, Ireland’s birth rate has been anomalously high compared to the global average. Some demographers have put this down to the prolonged retention of traditional Catholic values on contraception, which had long been abandoned in other parts of Europe. However, changing social dynamics have led to a marked shift in recent years.

The recent decline in birth rates mirror a drop in fertility rates, which have been gradually falling over the past five decades. For a population to replace itself, fertility rates must be 2.1% or higher. In 2022, fertility rates were at 1.5%. But other social factors are also playing a role. The sharp drop has been put down to social issues. Within the current economic climate in Ireland, raising a child has become more unaffordable than ever before. Childcare fees have been hiked, with some parents paying as much as €220 a week , average rent is over €2,300 per month in Dublin, and it was recently announced that Ireland is now the second most expensive country in the EU for goods and services – 42% higher than average.

In a statement to The Times, Paul Morland, a demographer has stated that these issues will not hit Ireland for another 20-30 years. “Low fertility is something that does build problems for the future — problems that Britain, Spain and Germany are already experiencing. Ireland is going in the same direction; it’s just about 20-30 years behind the countries that are having demographic headaches at the moment.”

While Ireland may not yet feel the full impact of its declining birth and fertility rates, the current trajectory points to the possibility of a demographic crisis in the next few decades. As the population ages and fewer young people enter the workforce, Ireland faces significant economic and social challenges, mirroring issues already seen in the rest of Europe. Addressing the underlying factors, such as the high cost of living, could be an essential step to addressing this trend.

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